On January 16, 2024, Iran carried out an attack on Panjgur, Balochistan, claiming that the target was Jaish-Ul-Adal, a Sunni militant and Baluch separatist group that operates within southeastern Iran. Jaish-al-Adal is accused of carrying out various terrorist attacks within Iranian soil and is being operated from Balochistan, Pakistan. Jaish-al-Adal also maintains ties with Ansar-Al-Furkan, which is another Sunni militant group operating terrorist attacks within Iranian soil. Just last month, Iran accused Jaish-al-Adal militants of a deadly attack on a police station that resulted in the casualties of 11 Iranian police officers. The attack resulted in the deaths of two children and injured three Pakistani citizens.
Pakistan was left with no option other than retaliating against the unilateral Iranian attacks on its territory. Initially, there was a condemnation of events by Islamabad that eventually led to a cutoff of diplomatic ties. Pakistan recalled its ambassador and asked the Iranian representative in Pakistan not to return. Pakistan responded by carrying out a series of highly coordinated air strikes in the Sistan-Baluchistan region of Iran with precision in less than 48 hours of airspace violation by Iran. Pakistan came out with similar excuses for targeting anti-state separatist organizations, BLA and BLF, hideouts within Iranian territory. The operation, codenamed ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar’, which was carried out in two locations near the city of Savaran, situated at the Pakistan-Iran border, resulted in the deaths of seven non-Iranians. Pakistan’s retaliation appears to have been proportionate to Iran’s earlier strike, and notably, it targeted only militants and not Iranian security forces.
The experts raised concerns that the recent crises might lead to intense and widespread conflict. However, considering the economic conditions of both countries, it is less likely that the situation might escalate. Iran is a fragile economy undergoing an economic crisis in the aftermath of international sanctions. The same is the case with Pakistan, a country that was recently on the verge of bankruptcy but cannot afford the expense of costly conflict. Also, when we look at the historical relations of both countries, both were part of the Western Bloc against the Eastern Bloc during the Cold War and were the founding members of CENTO, an anti-communist alliance. Iran was the first country to accept Pakistan after partition, and Pakistan opened its first embassy in Iran. Moreover, Iran also provided aid to Pakistan during the India-Pakistan Wars of 1965 and 1971. Later, Iran backed Pakistan and trained Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War. Pakistan also supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq War.
Considering the economic conditions and historical ties, it is least likely for both countries to undergo a full-blown war. Moreover, considering the Israel-Hamas conflict in the region, both Pakistan and Iran would not like to get engaged in a conflict. Tehran’s decision to attack terrorist hideouts in Pakistan was probably a miscalculation and deadly message sent to the wrong address, as Iran did not expect the retaliatory response from Pakistan. Iran was probably flexing its muscles as it carried out attacks in Syria and Iraq before. This could also be the case if Iran wanted neighboring states to rethink their alignment with the United States and not offer their territories to the United States to be used to counter Iran and its proxies. Moreover, it was a strategic mistake as Iran escalated an unnecessary conflict in the region as Iran is already engaged in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The writer is a student of “International Relations” at “National Defense University” and a member of PYDIR.