The History of the world is mark by a series of events and incidents ranging from the first War on Water to World Wars, however, these events have not threatened every element of the sphere, but the changing climate is a drastic threat to every element of the earth. Let us see the prospect of climate change through the lens of Arctic melting and its effects on the geopolitical landscape. This writing draws attention to the most indispensable and, at the same time, least discussed area of the globe, “the continuously melting Arctic Ocean.” This study is going to analyze factors that are leading to the melting of the Arctic as well as its long-term regional and global impacts, expanding research further to the geopolitical impacts of Arctic ablation. The Arctic Ocean, which is located far north of the Earth, is the frozen part of the Earth that is slowly and steadily defrosting, primarily due to climate change. Scientists have predicted that at the end of 2035, the Arctic will be left with no ice. What if Arctic ice disappeared? Will discuss it late in the article. The increase in Earth’s temperature due to the release of an unlimited amount of greenhouse gases, burning fossil fuels, growing industrial activities, and the majorly improper disposal of indecomposable compounds eventually cause climatic disturbance, which directly or indirectly causes degradation of the Arctic Ocean.
The Arctic experienced the warmest summer this year. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) characterizes the circumpolar Arctic as the world’s climate change “barometer,” as Alaska, north Canada, Russia, Chukotka, and Greenland witness the changing climate. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration’s (NOAA) 2023 Arctic Report suggests that the Arctic continues to warm twice as fast as the rest of the globe because of humans’ deleterious activities, the deadliest for the climate. The climate change led to the loss of 350 trillion pounds of mass from the Greenland ice sheet. If this continues at the same rate, it will pose a threat to the northern hemisphere and its animal and plant species (polar bears, seabirds) particularly, the rise in sea level in general. Rising sea level has the potential to alter a nation’s economic patterns, as the cities on the coast are perceived to be the most developed and income generators of a country. Rising sea level eventually results in coastal flooding, which leads to the displacement of people and businesses and the damaging of infrastructure with the utmost vulnerability for island states.
Recently, Russia (Nuclear Agency Rosatom) and Dubai (DP World) set up a joint venture to develop container shipping through the Arctic. This initiative is mainly taken by Russia as it is shifting its trade from the west due to sanctions resulting from the Ukraine war, towards the east. Moscow can attract other partners in this new Northern route, starting from Murmansk near Russia’s border with Norway to the Bering Strait near Alaska. If trade shifts north, the world’s dependence on southern waters will eventually decrease. This is a significant challenge for states whose economies heavily depend on southern trade routes, such as Egypt, Malaysia, Indonesia, Djibouti, etc. On the other hand, it is a hopeful development for countries like Russia, China, Canada, Japan, and Norway. This shift actively demonstrates that the world’s dependence will gradually increase on northern states and the Bering Strait, potentially reshaping the world order.
Parallel to the transit route, Arctic ablation is opening a gateway to the world’s significant resources. According to a 2008 assessment conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of natural gas resources are present in the Arctic Ocean. The melting of the Arctic due to global warming and climatic alterations opens up opportunities for the world to exploit these resources, with NATO members already making claims over these oil and gas reserves. Approximately 2.6 million barrels of fossil fuels are pumped out of the Russian and Canadian Arctic each day. However, as we have seen recently, the world is changing its priorities from oil and gas. On the same account, the exploration of these resources in the cold Arctic and further transportation is not an easy task. The climax is particularly rare earth metals like neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium, which are major sources of electrical vehicles. There is rising tension internationally for access to these metals, most importantly between Canada and China. These resources might be the basis for future conflicts between nations over the Arctic.
To summarize what has been discussed so far, Arctic ablation began when we first discovered fire, embraced technology, established industries, and started using synthetic materials. While the Arctic has always been a region of great importance, climate change has heightened its significance. The Arctic, rich in resources and with the potential to connect the world in the far north, is causing tensions in the current global landscape, and these tensions may intensify if its ablation continues to increase. UNCLOS has outlined laws related to the sea and its resources, but it is crucial to establish new laws or revise existing ones
The writer is a student of “BSIR” at “International Islamic University Islamabad” and a member of PYDIR.