Afghanistan, which lies at the crossroads of Central Asia, has the potential to shape the policies of the states despite its unstable political and economic history. It holds the charm of its strategic location in the eastern world and the western inclination towards its resources are the luxuries of its significance, which may be the reason behind the prolonged wars in Afghanistan. After the Soviet invasion in 1979, followed by the Taliban taking over, an era of never-ending instability occupied Afghanistan. During the whole time, the shift in policies of regional and international powers along with the border-sharing nations of Afghanistan can be observed. This writing basically explains the concept of “geopolitics,” which defines the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan which helps India to gain influence “Afghanistan.”.
In today’s realistic world, the “national interests” of the states always prevail. Pakistan and Afghanistan are tied together through common religious backgrounds, with more than 40% of Pakistani belonging ethnically, linguistically, and regionally to the nation of Afghanistan, sharing similar values and traditions, but unfortunately, these communalities become a headache for the two in the form of issues like “Durand Line” and “Pashtunistan,” which is the reason why the policies adopted by the nations seem to always prioritizing their national interests. On the other hand, Indo-Afghan relations are also characterized by a self-centered bond. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Pakistan joined hands with the US to counter Soviet expansion and provided defense assistance to “Mujahedin,” later on against which the “war of terror” was launched by the US with the help of Pakistan. From the period of 1979 to 2001, Pakistan’s policies towards Afghanistan were shaped according to the interests of the West. Later, with the beginning of the Hamid Karzai regime, a mixed approach can be seen in their relations, with two governments accusing each other in the UN for their failure to counter terrorism (2006) while later in January 2007, Hamid Karzai and Shaukat Aziz exchanged talks in order to soften ties. Pakistan’s motive behind the talks was to establish close relations with Afghanistan prior to Karzai’s stable regime.
India’s policies towards Afghanistan was completely different during the Soviet invasion and remain on the backlines owing to close Indo-Soviet ties. This cautious approach benefits India to secure a safe position on all sides, and similarly, the huge contribution of economic assistance and social development for the reconstruction of war-devastated Afghanistan built a positive image of India among Afghani people. After the beginning of the Taliban regime, Indo-Afghan relations were marginalized mainly due to the terrorist activities in the Kashmir region and their utmost support for the Northern Alliance operating near the border of the Central Asian states of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which might be due to Indian interests in “Heartland.” Post-9/11 relations between the two states are much different. During the Hamid Karzai regime, India and Afghanistan enjoyed a period of friendly diplomatic relations with huge economic assistance and social development projects from the side of the Indian government, along with training program in order to create linkages with Central Asian Republics on one hand and counter Pakistan’s influence in CAR’s on other. India’s efforts to sponsor Pakistani insurgencies in the region of Baluchistan and KP and to create instability in Pakistan using Afghan soil, were only met by having a pro-Afghan government. These desires of India were also met during the Karzai regime.
With the beginning of Ashraf Ghani period, there were seen many ups and downs in triangular relationship of Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. This time, the Afghan government tried to maintain good ties with Pakistan, but her inability to fulfil promises to the Ghani government regarding security issues and negotiations with the Taliban created rifts between the two and led to close Indo-Afghan ties, which allows India again to influence the region of Afghanistan and Central Asia furthermore, India and Afghanistan collectively worked to isolate Pakistan at the regional level. In my opinion, Pakistan was not worried much over this because it had another existing option (the Taliban) in Afghanistan, although it seems to have been lost owing to recent Pakistani policies towards the Taliban.
More than two years after the Taliban drove into Afghanistan for the second time by overthrowing the Ghani’s democratic regime, Pakistan has once again had the opportunity to influence the region owing to its support for the Taliban in 1996. On the other side, India’s closure of its embassy during the first regime of the Taliban and the opposition of the de-facto government on international platforms, but an unexpected shift in India’s behavior this time is concerning. In June 2022, India reopened its embassy in Kabul without officially recognizing the Taliban regime. India this time wants to have soft policies towards Afghanistan in order to jeopardize the sway of Pakistan. Now it is up to Pakistan to shape its policies towards Afghanistan while keeping in mind the intentions of regional hegemons and neighboring enemies.
The sudden increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, of which TJP claimed responsibility, created a huge turn with Pakistan accusing the Taliban of backing TTP (Tehreek- e – Taliban Pakistan), the charges which the Taliban denied and said were an internal matter of Pakistan. The Pakistani government warned the Taliban several times and at last decided to deport unregistered Afghan refugees living in Pakistan in order to pressurize the Taliban, but the policy further deteriorated the ties between the two. This move by Pakistan allows India to establish further close relations with the Taliban, over which she has been thinking after watching Taliban collaborative relations with Iran and Russia to counter other terrorist groups in 2015 and the peace treaty signed between the US and the Taliban in February 2020. This changing dynamic of Taliban-Pakistan relations helped India fill the gap created by its regional rival in Afghanistan.
The crux of the discussion is that the recent approach of Pakistan towards Afghanistan is not only creating tensions on its north-western border but will eventually allow its enemies in the east to influence the region, along with allowing them to create instability in the KP and Baluchistan regions. In my opinion, Pakistan should try to normalize its relations with the Taliban through negotiations and revise its defense and security policies in order to counter terrorism within its borders first, which will eventually allow Pakistan to establish stable ties with Afghanistan on the one hand while avoiding leveraging its enemies on the other.
The writer is a student of “BS International Relations” at “International Islamic University Islamabad”.