The material is taken from the article “The Case for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia,” written by “Mastoor Qurat-ul-Ain” in South Asian Voices. It is a publication of the Stimson Center.
Both nuclear powers in South Asia, India and Pakistan, pose significant threats to the security and stability of the region. Due to their decade-long rivalry, the risk of a serious nuclear crisis remains ever-present. Both countries consider nuclear deterrence mandatory to avoid future wars and conflicts, so they are further improving their nuclear weapons at a fast pace. However, long-term stability is only possible when the region is free from all types of nuclear weapons. Complete nuclear disarmament is the only genuine solution to this problem.
During the Cold War era, the USA and USSR prevented nuclear conflicts on numerous occasions, but that may not be the case in South Asia in the future. The reason is that India and Pakistan have not been involved in any open dialogue for a long period of time. Furthermore, both countries share a long geographical border, which further exacerbates the danger. Pakistan and India have been in a nuclear arms race for decades, each strengthening its arm in various ways. It further complicates the situation, increasing the threat of a more diastolic conflict.
It is not possible that billions of dollars are being spent and nuclear weapons are being manufactured on such a large scale just to deter enemies. Both nuclear powers have threatened to use atomic weapons when the need arises. These threats further raise questions about deterrence optimism. In a critical situation, deterrence may not be able to prevent a serious conflict, as both countries have confidence in their nuclear weapons. No doubt, besides the role of China and the USA, nuclear deterrence played a significant role in preventing an all-out war at the time of the Kargil War between India and Pakistan. But it does not mean that these countries will follow the same pattern in the future because the policies and leaders of states change over time.
As tensions continue to increase between India and Pakistan, a nuclear disaster seems to be inevitable. Moreover, in the event of a nuclear war, no nuclear power will be able to stop it. Ultimately, the only solution lies in abolishing all nuclear weapons. While disarmament may seem like an unrealistic approach, there is no other method as effective as disarmament. Both India and Pakistan should be brought to the table for dialogue by international actors to work on disarmament. Nuclear weapons are a threat to security and stability not only in South Asia but in the whole world. Disarmament is the only way to long-term stability.
The writer is a student of BS International Relations at International Islamic University Islamabad.